Prop firm pass probability calculator

How this prop firm calculator works

The simulator runs 2,000 parallel challenge attempts with random trade outcomes drawn from your stated win rate and R:R. Each run ends when you either hit the profit target, trip the daily drawdown, trip the max drawdown, or run out of days. The pass probability is the share of runs that reached the target alive.

FTMO-style defaults explained

• Profit target: 8% (FTMO Phase 1) or 10% (legacy). MyFundedFX: 8%. The Funded Trader: 8%.
• Max DD: 10% total drawdown from peak, enforced across the whole challenge.
• Daily DD: 5% from daily starting equity. Easiest rule to accidentally trip.
• Max days: 30 trading days for most firms. No minimum day requirement since 2024 at FTMO.

Rules of thumb from the simulation

1. Edge matters more than win rate. 50% win at 1.5R beats 70% win at 0.8R. Expectancy per trade (displayed above) should be positive or you'll fail in expectation regardless of variance.
2. Risk per trade is the #1 lever. Dropping risk from 1% to 0.5% typically cuts bust rate in half for the same edge.
3. Sweet spot for most EAs: 0.25 - 0.5% risk, 55-60% win, 1.2-1.5R average winner. Pass rates 55-75%.

Related

• Best EA for prop firm challenges — EAs engineered for FTMO/MyFundedFX rules.
• Prop firm partnership page — our recommended firms and configs.